As the 2025 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament tips off, fans and analysts are already speculating about potential first-round upsets. Historically, No. 12 vs. No. 5 seed matchups have produced some of the most thrilling surprises, and this year is shaping up to be no different. Here’s a look at three games that could shake up the March Madness bracket and send higher seeds packing.
UC San Diego vs. Michigan (No. 12 vs. No. 5)
The UC San Diego Tritons (30-4) enter the tournament riding a 15-game winning streak, one of the longest in the nation. Their top-30-ranked defense thrives on forcing turnovers, a factor that could disrupt Michigan’s offensive rhythm.
Adding to Michigan’s potential struggles, the Wolverines have had the least amount of rest of any team, having just secured the Big Ten Tournament title. A quick turnaround could leave them vulnerable against a red-hot Tritons squad.
Key Players to Watch:
Aniwaniwa Tait-Jones (UC San Diego, G): Senior leader averaging 19.5 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 3.8 assists per game.
Vladislav Goldin (Michigan, C): The junior center is Michigan’s leading scorer, tasked with both anchoring the defense and generating offense in the paint.
With momentum, defensive efficiency, and Michigan’s fatigue factor in play, UC San Diego has all the ingredients for a major March Madness upset.
Drake vs. Missouri (No. 11 vs. No. 6)
The Drake Bulldogs (30-3) are one of the most consistent mid-major teams in the tournament. Known for their grind-it-out playing style, Drake brings tournament experience and a disciplined approach that could spell trouble for Missouri.
Under coach Dennis Gates, Missouri has had an up-and-down season but thrives in fast-paced, high-energy matchups. The contrast between Missouri’s run-and-gun offense and Drake’s methodical, slow-tempo game makes this a classic clash of styles.
Drake, winners of the Missouri Valley Conference, rank 364th in Adjusted Tempo, making them one of the slowest-paced teams in the tournament. This deliberate style and defensive discipline could neutralize Missouri’s athleticism and turn this game into a low-scoring battle—perfect conditions for an upset.
Colorado State vs. Memphis (No. 12 vs. No. 5)
Another No. 12 seed to watch is Colorado State (25-8), a team surging into the tournament with 10 consecutive wins, including a Mountain West Tournament championship.
The Rams are an elite shooting team, averaging 1.1 points per possession and excelling at controlling the game’s tempo. Meanwhile, Memphis (29-5) has been inconsistent, suffering losses to Temple and Arkansas State despite key wins over Michigan State and Ole Miss.
One major storyline in this matchup is the uncertainty surrounding Memphis star guard Tyrese Hunter. If he is unavailable or limited, the Tigers could struggle against a well-rounded and disciplined Colorado State squad.
Key Factors:
Betting Odds: Despite being the lower seed, Colorado State is a slight 2.5-point favorite.
Star Player: Nique Clifford (Colorado State, G) leads the Rams in scoring, assists, and defensive rebounding.
Pace of Play: Memphis plays a high-scoring, fast-paced game, while Colorado State’s slower, efficient offense could dictate the tempo.
Final Thoughts: Can These Underdogs Pull Off the Upset?
Every March Madness bracket has surprises, and these matchups have all the makings of major first-round upsets. With UC San Diego’s defensive dominance, Drake’s strategic control, and Colorado State’s momentum, each of these teams has a strong case for advancing past higher-seeded opponents.
As the 2025 NCAA Tournament unfolds, keep an eye on these potential Cinderella stories—because in March Madness, anything can happen.
